80 Insurgents Remain in Kasserine and Jendouba, According to the United Nations and Tunisia

On January 15, 2019, the United Nation’s Security Council released its “23rd report (S/2019/50) of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team concerning Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (Da’esh), Al-Qaida and associated individuals, groups, undertakings and entities.” In it, according to “member state information,” most likely Tunisia, Katibat ‘Uqbah Bin Nafi “employs only about 50 fighters, with activities limited to the mountainous areas of Kasserine and Jendouba.” While the Islamic State in Tunisia is “a relatively inactive group of approximately 30 fighters in the mountainous region.” This is the first time that the UN via a “member state” (Tunisia) has shared any details on group size since either organization has been around (KUBN: 2012; IS-T: 2014). It could suggest Tunisia’s growing confidence in the fact that these groups have been degraded and the pace of terrorist attacks have remained low over the past few years. Since a peak of violence in 2015 (IS-T: 11 attacks; KUBN: 7 attacks), IS-T has conducted 4 attacks each year since, while KUBN has conducted 3 attacks each year since.